2023–2024 Olive Milling Outlook: Navigating Challenges in Southern California

 I originally intended to write a comprehensive guide detailing every mill offering public milling in Southern California this season. However, after numerous unreturned phone calls and limited responses, it became clear that providing a broad overview of the current landscape would be most helpful.

The bottom line for growers: 2023–2024 is shaping up to be one of the most challenging milling seasons on record.

Several factors are converging to create a tight bottleneck for growers without their own processing facilities:

1. A Record-Breaking Crop Size

Anecdotal evidence suggests we are looking at the largest harvest in at least 20 years, with fruit load increasing significantly further inland. We estimate this crop could be up to 50% larger than the massive harvest four years ago—a year when existing mills were already overwhelmed by demand.

2. Severely Limited Public Milling Capacity

Milling capacity in the region has diminished even further since the last big harvest:

• Central Coast: Out of 10 known mills, only Kiler Ridge has confirmed public milling. A second mill may offer services, but the remaining mills are either operating privately or closed entirely.

• Southern Region: The Olive Plantation in Temecula confirmed they will offer small-scale public milling,though this will cover only a fraction of the regional demand.

• Industry Turnover: Significant ownership changes over the last two years have caused delays, unreliability, and a general loss of experienced public mill operators.

3. Delayed Harvest Window

For 15 years, harvest start dates shifted earlier by about two days per year. This season, a long, wet winter and spring reversed that trend completely. As of late October, Spanish varieties show no color development, and Italian varieties are just beginning to turn.

4. The Double-Bind: Yield vs. Freeze Risk

A late harvest creates two serious hurdles:

• Narrowing Windows: With a late start, the threat of early hard freezes leaves a very tight window for picking and processing. Coastal growers face less freeze risk and hold a clear advantage this year.

• Lower Oil Yields: Heavy crop loads naturally yield less oil per ton of fruit. While allowing fruit to ripen longer can boost yield, waiting increases the risk of freeze damage.

(Note: Forecasts suggest a strong El Niño could bring milder temperatures—reducing freeze risk—but increased rainfall may create scheduling and logistical headaches during harvest.)

The Takeaway for Growers: Plan as far ahead as possible, maintain strong relationships with your millers, and secure your processing early.